Valentine’s Weekend Storm Includes Flood, Severe Threats In South
- - Valentine’s Weekend Storm Includes Flood, Severe Threats In South
Jonathan Erdman February 15, 2026 at 5:20 AM
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Valentine's weekend will be a soaker across the South, with locally heavy rain and a few severe thunderstorms possible from Texas to Florida to the Carolinas and Virginia.
While this wet weekend forecast sounds like a bummer, there are several "saving graces:"
1. It won't rain the entire weekend in any one area of the South.
2. There's no bitter cold air in place, so this isn't another southern winter storm the likes of the recent ice storm ("Fern") nor the Carolinas clobbering ("Gianna").
3. This does not appear to be a significant severe weather outbreak, nor a major flash flood threat.
4. In fact, for much of the region, this rain is sorely needed. (More on that later.)
When Will It Rain?
Rain and thunderstorms are spreading eastward across the South along the Interstate 10 corridor.
On Saturday night, a possible tornado broke some tree limbs in Orange County, Texas. Wind gusts as high as 70 mph were reported in Southeast Texas. Strong winds also downed powerlines in Nacogdoches city and county in Louisiana.
Rain will spread into the Southeast Sunday, then should be off the East Coast by Monday.
Some snow is expected on the northern fringes of this storm on Sunday, from Philadelphia to Providence. Several inches of snow are possible by early Monday morning.
(MORE MAPS: Daily US Rain, Snow Forecast)
Severe Threat
In general, we expect the severe weather threat with this system to be rather low and isolated.
- Sunday - Sunday night: This isolated severe threat will sweep across the Deep South and northern Gulf Coast from southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia during the day, then across parts of the Florida Peninsula Sunday evening. Again, strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible.
(MORE: 15 Severe Weather Safety Tips That Could Save Your Life)
Heavy Rain Threat
Parts of the South will be soaked by locally heavy rain this weekend.
Localized flash flooding remains possible across the Southeast as this system moves through.
While this doesn't appear to be a widespread flash flood danger, keep this in mind if you're driving in these areas this weekend. Never try to drive through a flooded stretch of road. Turn around, instead.
(MORE: Flooding Is One Of Most Deadly Weather Phenomena)
'Goldilocks' Rain?
Given the relatively low threats of both severe weather and flash flooding, this might be a near-ideal case of drought relief.
As you can see in the map below, much of the South is currently in drought. Parts of Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas are in extreme drought as of mid-February.
Over the past few days, fires have burned in parts of Florida, western North Carolina, near Shawnee, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle.
It's also been among the five driest winters-to-date in over a dozen cities including Charlotte, Dallas, Little Rock, Raleigh and West Palm Beach, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Source: U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NDMC/NOAA
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
Source: “AOL Breaking”
