- - Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense for Week 16

Derek CartyDecember 19, 2025 at 6:15 AM

0

Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Here, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level.

Michael Carter, Cardinals

THE BLITZ Week 16 Projection: 12.2 carries, 2.9 receptions, 72 yards, 0.47 TD

Week 16 vs. YTD: RB23 vs. RB51

With Bam Knight hitting injured reserve, Carter figures to be the lead back for Arizona down the stretch. Head coach Jonathan Gannon basically confirmed this when asked about his comfort level with Carter as the lead, replying, “Very comfortable. I thought Mike played extremely well in Houston.” (h/t Coachspeak Index Discord)

Emari Demercado will eat into that workload a bit, but Carter figures to get plenty of work on the ground and through the air to make him a very valuable late-season addition for anyone in need of RB help.

James Cook III, Bills

THE BLITZ Week 16 Projection: 21.6 carries, 1.9 receptions, 118 yards, 0.76 TD

Week 16 vs. ROS: 18.78 PPR points vs. 14.8 PPR points per game

Cook has had some of his best games (and best projections) when Buffalo is leading by a lot. Against a weak Cleveland offense, the Bills are 10-point favorites, setting Cook up for a lot of rushing attempts.

They also have the fifth-highest team total on the slate at 26, creating plenty of potential touchdown equity for Cook. Throw in the sub-freezing temperatures and Cleveland’s fast-paced play, and we have quite a few factors pointing in Cook’s direction this week.

Mason Tipton, Saints

THE BLITZ Week 16 Projection: 5.4 targets, 2.9 receptions, 34 yards, 0.24 TD

Week 16 vs. YTD: 7.96 PPR points vs. 1.26 PPR points per game

Tipton is a player whom head coach Kellen Moore and his coaching staff have been talking up since the preseason. He hasn’t had much of a chance to show what he’s got yet, but with Devaughn Vele out this week, Tipton figures to be the No. 2 or 3 option in this offense. Granted, it’s the Saints, but this is still a player that coaching thinks is talented who should be out there nearly every play with limited target competition, playing at home in the dome. More of a deep-league consideration, but a guy who could have a sneaky-good week.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

THE BLITZ Week 16 Projection: 36.1 attempts, 18.6 completions, 219 yards, 1.57 TD

Week 16 vs. Last 4 Weeks: QB20 vs. QB1

Lawrence has been on a heater of late, and head coach Liam Coen has talked repeatedly about what a high level he’s playing at and all the things he’s doing well. That said, this week sets up as a potential let-down spot for T-Law as he squares off against the Denver Broncos.

The Broncos have an elite defense that also happens to run man coverage shells at the highest rate in the league. This is notable for Lawrence because he has one of the most pronounced man/zone splits of any quarterback, favoring zone defenses.

Audric Estimé (and Evan Hull), Saints

THE BLITZ Week 16 Projection: 9.3 carries, 1.8 receptions, 53 yards, 0.23 TD

With Devin Neal officially ruled out for this week, those desperate for running back value may be tempted to dip into the New Orleans backfield, but that seems ill-advised. Estimé is the bigger name and the guy people may gravitate towards, but this looks much more like an ugly split-backfield (for a bad offense, no less) than anything else. After Neal went down with injury last week, Estimé took more of the targets while Hull took more of the carries. I far prefer Michael Carter (or even a guy like Kenneth Gainwell) to either of these guys for anyone in need of a running back this week.

Omarion Hampton, Chargers

THE BLITZ Week 16 Projection: 11.2 carries, 1.7 receptions, 62 yards, 0.59 TD

Week 16 vs. ROS: RB29 vs. RB25

When J.K. Dobbins went down with injury midway through the season, Hampton was primed to be one of the top fantasy options at running back until he himself succumbed to injury. He’s finally healthy again, but in his absence, Kimani Vidal established himself as a legitimate backfield option, with head coach Jim Harbaugh on multiple occasions referring to him as a “No. 1” running back in the league.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman alluded to a “1-2 punch” when Hampton returned, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Hampton has taken just 43% and 54% of the carries in the two weeks he’s been back, and his routes have been more than cut in half from where they were earlier in the season. More recently, Roman has said that the team will play the “hot hand” and that both guys are hot right now, making this a very murky situation and Hampton a much less usable asset than many hoped he’d be.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”